The nine years since Donald Trump first announced that he was running for President have transformed politics in the United States, as he and the actors around him forge a new political coalition and remake the conservative movement that emerged from the Reagan years. Trump managed to unite the increasingly rabid, right-wing Republican base with techno-libertarians and fringe far-right and fascist groups. Both in 2016 and 2024 Democrats assumed that moderate, suburban Republicans wouldn’t go along with him, and both times they were wrong. Clearly, central assumptions about the political centre of the US were outdated and naïve.
Trump’s new coalition marks uncharted territory both for the Republicans and the US as a whole, making it hard to predict how it will wield state power over the medium term. Rifts between the different factions began forming even before Trump took office. Although they continue to manage a tense collaboration so far, there is no telling how long the coalition can hold. Should it blow up, how great the fallout could be is anybody’s guess.
The Winning Coalition
Trump’s base is incredibly loyal to him personally, but difficult to characterize by much else. A collection of aging traditional conservatives along for the ride and others radicalized by over a decade of right-wing militancy from the Tea Party to QAnon, his base is the most chaotic and tumultuous part of his coalition. It is also by far the biggest. They are racist, sexist, homophobic, and transphobic, but generally fall short of the openly genocidal fervour seen in the fascist wing. Their politics are amorphous and change with the times, along with whatever comes out of Trump’s mouth, making them eager participants in his efforts to undermine democratic institutions. If they can be said to have any specific policy preference, it’s for hard-line economic and Christian nationalism. While the latter goes over well with the white nationalists in Trump’s coalition, the former — an economic nationalism often described as “populist” — tends to clash with the interests of other stakeholders.
The base is represented in Trump’s administration by career politicians like Marco Rubio, many of whom served during his first term. Others include Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth, whose credentials boil down to the fact that he used to host one of Trump’s favourite TV shows. These people only have power by virtue of their loyalty to the president — should they fall out of favour, they could lose influence immediately. Even those in cabinet positions requiring congressional approval can be dismissed at the president’s discretion.
Elon Musk and the other tech billionaires that attended Trump’s inauguration make up the second major part of his coalition, the techno-libertarians. With the exception of Musk, these figures were happy to promote diversity and inclusion during the Obama and Biden years, but now feel no need to continue. Few in number but flush with cash, they see in Trump a unique opportunity to remake the US economy by slashing oversight boards and destroying government agencies and regulations that stand in their way. Their goal is to turn back the clock on US financial and business governance to the nineteenth century, eliminating all legal obstacles to the continued growth of their monstrous wealth and securing lucrative government contracts along the way.
Yet the techno-libertarians differ quite a bit from the sections of capital that supported twentieth-century fascism in that they are almost universally nouveau riche. This is not the Junker class of capitalist nobles who sided with Hitler to maintain their centuries-old wealth and power — these are new-money upstarts who have catapulted themselves from the upper-middle class to become some of the wealthiest human beings in history. Consequently, they aren’t beholden to traditional ideas about how the wealthy should behave, nor do they have the same illusions that their deal with the devil will result in national economic stability. They are willing to break established systems, because that’s how they got rich in the first place. Their loyalty will only shift if their massive wealth is threatened.
The third major pillar of Trump’s coalition are the resurgent fascist groups. Some of these are organized paramilitary entities, such as the Proud Boys, Three Percenters, Oath Keepers, and other smaller groups that stormed the Capitol on 6 January 2021. These groups have been working with local, state, and national Republicans for years, from Oath Keepers providing “security” at Trump rallies during his first term to Proud Boys chapters in the Pacific Northwest working directly with local police and sheriff departments to put down leftist protests. These organized, violent fascists are overwhelmingly male and predominately white. With Trump’s second term and his mass pardon for nearly everyone who participated in his attempt to steal the 2020 election, their loyalty to Trump translates into threats of partisan violence that have already scared some politicians into compliance with the administration.
Many of the young staffers across Trump’s new administration are budding fascists who grew up in the Trump era. Under 30 and terminally online, these young fascists aren’t centrally organized and are instead part of a growing right-wing cultural turn not only in the US but across much of the world. The young staffers at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), all 25 and under, are paradigmatic of this group. Openly hostile to democracy and proudly racist and sexist, they exist between the techno-libertarians and the other fascists, more professional than the paramilitaries but crasser than the libertarians are generally willing to be in public. Musk himself is an exception to this rule, combining the influence of the obscenely wealthy with objectionable, intentionally crude politics taken from online subcultures.
Along for the ride is the rest of the Republican Party, the moderate conservatives who felt more affinity to former GOP nominees Mitt Romney and John McCain. These are mostly members of Congress and other Washington officials who aren’t Trump loyalists but willing to collaborate with him to get things done, or at least follow the party line when it comes to Congressional votes. One might compare them to the collaborators from the fascist regimes of the early twentieth century — not exactly in favour of Trump’s actions, but unwilling to stand up to him.
Keep Them Guessing
The coalition that brought Trump to power in November is also the coalition currently running the White House, but its composition could change at a moment’s notice. Trump could dismiss anyone in his cabinet, or even the entire body. Federal judges recently ruled that he can essentially fire anyone in the government, even in agencies that had previously been insulated from partisan control such as the National Archive or the Federal Election Commission. Musk might be a staple in the White House for now, but Trump could wake up tomorrow and dismiss him, sic the IRS on him, or worse. This chaotic uncertainty is a central feature of Trump’s rule: he likes to keep his enemies and allies guessing.
As I write this in mid-February 2025, the techno-libertarians are in charge. They’ve captured the popular narrative and DOGE has emerged as a leading force, a shadow government given free rein to remake the administrative state to its liking. Trump is also making good on his promises to the furthest right parts of his coalition, attacking birthright citizenship and trans rights.
Nevertheless, when push comes to shove, Trump sides with the techno-libertarians — at least so far. This could be seen in the H1-B visa debate late last year, when Trump’s more nationalist and white supremacist supporters argued that he should eliminate the expert worker visa program to preserve those jobs for “real” Americans, while his wealthier donors pushed for them to stay, ensuring access to top-notch global talent for less pay. Trump sided with the wealthy, an early sign that he is not too concerned about keeping his base on his side. This may shift from issue to issue, as with Musk’s recent assaults on Medicare and Social Security, which are scorned by the business elite but relied upon by much of Trump’s base. The recent feud between Steve Bannon, Trump’s former aide, and Elon Musk was emblematic of this potential rift.
Toothless Opposition
When it comes to those outside Trump’s circle, the picture is no rosier. The Democrats have shown themselves to be uninterested in acting as an opposition party, choosing instead to hunker down and wait for the elections they assume they could still win in 2026. The main opposition to Trump’s agenda has come from the courts, which have (temporarily) stopped some of his efforts. Here, Trump may pull from the playbook of one of his favourite Presidents, Andrew Jackson, who famously said of a Supreme Court ruling he disagreed with: “John Marshall [then Chief Justice] has made his decision; now let him enforce it.” Trump may simply choose to ignore the courts, leaving many routes to opposing his power cut off from precedent.
Aside from Trump’s political allies, his administration consists of thousands of appointees, career bureaucrats, and military officials, many of whom he has already removed from office for disloyalty or because he is dissolving their entire organization. With the bureaucracy neutered, the only remaining part of the US government from which open opposition to Trump could reasonably emerge would be the military and intelligence services — a terrifying prospect in itself. But with Trump already replacing military and intelligence officials with his own cronies, even their opposition to his agenda seems unlikely.
Chaos Reigns
The chaotic and personal nature of Trump’s government makes it hard to predict where it is headed, or what his ultimate intentions are. At present, he appears to lack a long-term vision, and is instead engaged in a swift power-grab that combines eliminating any impediment to his power with enormous pay-outs to his allies. This lack of a sustainable plan is likely to end in a socioeconomic crisis not just for the US but for the world at large, given the former’s outsized role in the global economy.
The question is, after Trump’s current trajectory has run its course, what will he do in the ensuing chaos, which is likely to be harmful to his base as well as his opponents? He would seem to have two options.
The first option would be to reverse course and normalize, moving back to the style of governance from his first term and away from the present constitutional crisis. This may happen after he and his allies have secured the money and influence they seek, or he fears losing what he desires most, popularity. Such a course might see an economic crisis in the coming years harsher than what Trump’s business allies bargained for, with Trump steering back to the centre to maintain their support. One could also imagine a blended scenario, in which Musk’s techno-libertarian attacks on the central functions of the state compel Trump to jettison him in favour of pursuing his oppressive agenda against people of colour and undocumented immigrants in particular.
Trump’s second option would be to double down on his measures, either by legal or extra-legal state oppression and violence. Doing so would mark uncharted territory in the US, at least since the immediate post-Civil War era. Ultimately, the question would be whether or not Trump left the government functional enough to engage in the level of suppression he would require, and how he would navigate the federal nature of the United States. With no national police force and the state’s monopoly on violence distributed across thousands of local police forces, sheriff’s departments, and various other law enforcement agencies, would he get the institutional buy-in needed for large-scale oppression? For now, that is anyone’s guess.
Craig Johnson is a researcher focusing on the far right. He hosts the podcast “Fifteen Minutes of Fascism” and is the author of How to Talk to Your Son about Fascism.
Top photo: Gage Skidmore
